Are you wondering what to do with this year’s TFSA or RRSP contribution? I have some great picks you should consider. (Spoiler Alert: If you have read Beat the Bank, you won’t be surprised that my “Top Picks” may be pretty consistent from year to year!)
Unlike most “experts”, I do not base my picks on market forecasts. As Jeff Sommer stated in a New York Times/Globe and Mail article, “Specific forecasts – such as how high or low the market will go in a given year should be treated as fiction.”
Tom Bradley of Steadyhand Investments made an interesting observation in this National Post article. Over the past 60 years a portfolio of 50% Canadian stocks and 50% global stocks produced an average annual return of 9.6% but in only 2 of those 60 years did the return fall between 8% to 11%. In other words, annual returns are almost never average.
Returns will always be unpredictable. In addition to minimizing fees, the key to successful investing is selecting the right mix of stocks versus bonds in your portfolio adjusting that mix over time as your circumstances, goals, time frames and ability to handle risk change. Do not allow the percentage of stocks in your portfolio to be at a level which would cause you to panic and sell if the market takes a big dive. I know that is easy to say and hard to do because future circumstances and your responses are uncertain. But it is important that you think about it this way (see Chapter 9 of Beat the Bank).
Here is what I said in last year’s “Top Picks” newsletter:
Everyone’s circumstances are different and I don’t know yours so these picks may NOT be right for you. But if you are investing for the long term through an online brokerage account and want to keep it super simple, I suggest you consider one of Vanguard’s “Asset Allocation” ETFs (VCNS, VBAL and VGRO). These brilliantly simple “balanced” ETFs are highlighted on pages 176-177 of Beat the Bank. If one of these ETFs matches your desired stock/bond split (discussed in Chapter 9), you could buy it now and keep adding to it over time. For instance, if your desired stock/bond split is 60/40, you could buy VBAL.
No investment is perfect and every investment has risk but if you want a low cost, automatically balanced, globally diversified investment portfolio with one holding, these ETFs are hard to beat!
My ETF Top Picks produced the following total returns in 2019:
VGRO: 17.7%
VBAL: 14.8%
VCNS: 12.1%
Vanguard has since expanded their balanced ETF line up while RBC iShares and BMO now offer similarly excellent balanced ETFs. Here are the stock/bond weightings and tickers for all three of these providers:
Stocks | Bonds | Vanguard | RBC iShares | BMO |
80% | 20% | VGRO | XGRO | ZGRO |
60% | 40% | VBAL | XBAL | ZBAL |
40% | 60% | VCNS | XCNS | ZCON |
20% | 80% | VCIP | XINC |
Based on simplicity, low cost and the range of weightings between stocks and bonds, these balanced, “all-in-one” ETFs are once again my top picks for Canadian investors in 2020.
Upcoming Webinars
I will be hosting another “Beat the Bank Basics” webinar later this month. I also plan to host an “Ask Me Anything” webinar session in February. Details on both webinars to follow.
If you have any questions just email me at larry@larrybates.ca.
Lastly, a special thanks to all of you who have recommended my book to family and friends. Because of you, thousands more Canadians are learning how to Beat the Bank!
Happy New Year!
Hi Larry,
Thank you for your helpful advice and top picks. Your book is very practical, easy to understand, and pleasant to read.
I am now interested in buying one of the Vanguard’s asset allocation ETFs, but I am wondering if the price would be the same if I am buying it from another online broker such as Questrade rather than directly from Vanguard since I already have my investment account elsewhere? It does say on Vanguard’s website that they charge a 0.22% management fee for their asset allocation ETFs.
Thank you very much!
Jamie
You cannot buy directly from Vanguard. You need a brokerage account. Perhaps you have one already. All the big banks offer these online accounts as well as some independents like Questrade.
Larry
Hello Jamie,
I’m not an expert but I have read couple books (me favorite was the one from Larry Bates of course!). I do believe that in Canada, you can only buy these fantastic Asset Allocation ETFs as described by Larry only from broker (not directly with Vanguard).
Vanguard 0.22% fee on these ETFs is the same for whatever platforms you are investing with. Other fee such as trading (to buy or sell) is based from your broker obviously.
Hope this helps.
You are correct. Thanks for chipping in!
Larry.
Great advice for 2020! After reading your book (one of the most educational books about financial planning I’ve read in years) and calculating my T-Rex Score from your book, I’ve now switched my accounts from a financial planner who had me invested in high MER mutual funds, to a Direct Investing account, where I hold the VBAL ETF.
I’ve bought a copy of your book for my kids, who are just starting to invest. I’ve also lent my copy to family, so they can compute their T-Rex Score. Your book was a big topic discussion at our family Christmas gathering this year!
Happy New Year Larry and all the best in 2020!!
Ken
Thanks for the feedback Ken. I really appreciate it!
Hi Larry, thanks so much for your timely picks for 2020. I keep your book handy, and refer to it often. I’ve completely moved to 100% AIY investing and feel completely comfortable and confident in my decisions. I, like many others, wish you had written it 20 years ago.
One question I have on your picks. iShares XBAL and XGRO have higher turnovers (184%, 117% respectively). Does this cause any concern? Thanks in advance for any comments.
I hope you will be recording your Feb webinars for those not able to male the date!
Glad you found BTB useful! Your question is a good one. Seems a bit odd……….I don’t know the answer. One guess would be these turnover numbers capture the start up of these ETFs.
Hi Larry, thanks so much for your timely picks for 2020. I keep your book handy, and refer to it often. I’ve completely moved to 100% AIY investing and feel completely comfortable and confident in my decisions. I, like many others, wish you had written it 20 years ago.
I hope you will be recording your Feb webinars for those not able to male the date!
I have a smaller self-directed LIRA (21k) account with Questrade. It’s currently with the Mawer Balanced RRSP fund which I was happy with until I saw the t-rex score for it compared to the VBAL. Any thoughts on making the move from Mawer to VBAL?
Hi Kyle. I can’t give you personal advice but VBAL sure charges a lot less!
Hey Larry,
Thank you for the article, indeed they are great picks! Which Vanguard ETFs (vnsc, vbal or vgro) could make more sense for a 5 to 10 years investment plan?
Hi Amine. There is no one answer for everyone. I would just suggest you re-read chapter 9….hope that helps you make a decision.
A few days ago, I copied, verbatim, the questions on page 47 that you urge all investors to ask their advisors. Our advisor was terrified, and that is telling.
I am so ready to switch to an “Assemble It Yourself” portfolio. Any ideas for bringing my spouse along? I borrowed Beat the Bank from the public library. Perhaps I will buy him a copy and keep putting it in front of him.
I think your strategy with your spouse is a good one! I will be doing a webinar soon. If you subscribe to my newsletter you will get the details.
Nadine, I was in the same boat! My wife is now on the same page. We have gone the AIY route and although it took some time and patience we’ve made the switch and both feel extremely confident with our decisions. See if you can get them to watch one of Larry’s webcasts if they don’t seem interested in reading the book. After that I’d be surprised if they weren’t interested in the book. Good luck!
Thanks for pitching in Norm!
I’ll add our combined T-Rex score went from 63% to 96% with AIY.
Hi Larry I just finished your book today.It was very informative and easy to understand.Can you share links on how to find a good fee for service advisors?
I recommend you check this out: https://fpassociation.ca/page/why-work-with-an-fpac-member
Love the book. I’ve never visualized what we were leaving on the table the way you’ve illustrated.
I’ve just reviewed my wife’s work RRSP fund from Sun Life. MER of 2.35%, admin fee of $40, and on a slightly deeper look all of its investments were in other funds, most of which – I’m guessing you’re not surprised – were other Sun -life funds, all of which have their own MER’s, and those funds ALSO invest in other Sun Life funds!
This ‘growth’ fund also boasts a ~50% turn-over which no doubt means any selling fees for those funds also go to Sun Life. It’s growing for someone – but not for us.
Keep it up Larry, I’ll keep recommending your book as well.
Thanks Dwight! Good luck.
Hi Larry. Just finished the book and it was awesome. We have a small RRSP, our children’s RESP, and a small TFSA all in mutual funds right now. I have a couple of questions:
1. Should we transfer these accounts over to an online brokerage and then choose ETFs that meet our needs? Would it be better to just stop contributing to these, leave them and open new accounts through a discount brokerage and start with ETFs?
2. Is it advisable to do these changes right now as our investments have dropped significantly with everything going on.
Thanks!
Hi Jason. Glad you liked the book. Once you set up new accounts at an online brokerage, they can easily transfer over the assets from your old accounts. If you sell your old mutual funds and buy lower cost investments with a similar overall stock/bond allocation, it doesn’t much matter when you do it. Yes, your current investments have dropped in price but you will be buying your new investments at a correspondingly lower prices.
Hope that helps.
Hello Larry,
Before I start, I wanted to say thank you for writing a book on Canadian financial system. I found it very clear and easy to understand for a beginner like myself.
I just wanted to ask you a question about CAD Hedged ETF as you have mentioned in your book and it would be much appreciated if I can get some clarifications.
I understand the concept of purchasing an ETF that is currency hedged (ex. Vanguard’s VSP ETF), however wouldn’t it be counteractive to purchase a CAD hedged ETF, as I am investing in S&P500 ETF with understanding /hope that the US economy will outpace Canadian Economy over time? but by hedging, I am “protecting” myself incase CAD appreciates relative to USD, which means that I am expecting the opposite in the future (Canadian Economy will outpace US).
Thank you
Jimmy
Hi Jimmy. You are right. There is some correlation between economic, stock market and currency performance. But there are periods of time where the correlation doesn’t work. I prefer simple non-hedged ETFs but it is a personal choice. Hope that helps. Good luck!
Loving the book, and came to check the website. Thank you for all the info. In one of the comments, you mentioned “If you subscribe to my newsletter you will get the details.” in terms of the webinar. Wondering how we subscribe please? Thank you!
Hi Claire. Glad you like the book. I have done a few webinars and will likely do more in the fall. All newsletter subscribers will be notified.
HI there,
I was hoping to get your thoughts on XGRO vs. VGRO. Some of the other articles (eg https://creditcarrots.com/xgro-vs-vgro/) prefer XGRO due to the increased exposure to US equities, but I feel like Canadian equities have been pulled down over the recent years due to energy prices and could be rebounding soon. Do you prefer XGRO over VGRO over the long term?
Hi Jamie. I am a big fan of these balanced ETFs. I don’t have a preference between the two you mentioned. If you are uncertain which to choose you could buy some of both.
Hello, I really enjoyed your book and your website. You’ve helped me to take control of my finances and I really appreciate your advice. I am in the process of transferring our RESP from a managed “Old Bay Street” account to a DIY online brokerage account. Just wondering if there is benefit to using low-cost index funds (was thinking of the TD e-series funds) when making monthly contributions in small amounts and being able to purchase in dollars versus purchasing ETFs in units. My initial plan was to go with asset allocation allocation ETFs as I am now doing with my RRSP/TFSA, but in this scenario would being able to purchase with all available cash be worth the slightly higher MER?
Thanks in advance,
James
Hi James. TD e-series is a convenient product for those that want to make monthly contributions. Your plan makes good sense.
Good luck!
Larry
I keep re-referring to the book, and each time I discover new information. Can’t thank you enough. My question at the moment is, how many different ETFs would you recommend having, in say an RRSP account – I guess something along asset allocation and am assuming depending on how much money there is?! So for instance, if I want to allocate 32% for Canadian market investments, is it recommended to buy 1 ETF or more than one for the whole 32%?! I understand the importance of diversification too, but at the same time realize that an ETF has diverse companies within one ETF. So lost on this next step for me. Thank you!!!!
Hi Claire. Glad you find the book helpful. You could just have one ETF if you can find an all-in-one ETF that lines up with your desired asset mix. https://www.moneysense.ca/save/investing/best-all-in-one-etfs-for-2020/
Or you could invest in separate ETFs for each market like US stocks or Canadian bonds. There isn’t much if any value in buying multiple ETFs covering the same underlying assets.
Hope that helps.
Larry
Thank you for your reply and the link! Yes, it makes sense.
My spouse and I are retired with defined benefit pensions that are indexed to inflation. These provide us with a monthly income that covers all expenses with money to save each month. We also receive CPP and OAS benefits.
We have money we wish to invest, as it currently is only in GIC’s and accruing little interest.
I met with an Edward Jones Financial Advisor and he suggested a variety of mutual funds and stock purchases, but these did involve fees. I know little about investing, and although I have read your book and certainly understand the large disadvantage to investing with the bank, am not sure where to go. I need some guidance, but who ?? My bank , who currently has our TFSA accounts with GIC’s keeps suggesting mutual funds. We also have an RRSP that will need to dealt with through within the next two years.
Would a fee for service financial planner be helpful?
Any direction you could provide would be helpful!
Thank you,
Joan Metcalf
Hi Joan. Please email me directly at larry@larrybates.ca and I should be able to make a couple of suggestions.